Santa Cruz & Silicon Valley Real Estate News & Market Trends

A Closer Look at Home Price Trends

If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. Contrary to those headlines, home prices aren’t in a freefall. The latest data tells a very different and much more positive story. Local home price trends still vary by market, but here’s what the national data tells us.

Encouraging Signs: Stabilization and Rebound in the Market

If we take a year-over-year view, home prices stayed positive – they just appreciated more slowly than they did at the peak of the pandemic. To get a more detailed picture of some of the trends in the market, we need to look at monthly data.

The story this more detailed monthly view tells us is that the last year has been a tale of two halves in the housing market. In the first half of 2022, home prices were climbing, and they peaked in June. Then, in July, home prices started to decline (shown in red in the graphs above). And by roughly August or September, the trend began to stabilize. As we look at the most recent data for the early part of 2023, these graphs also show a recent rebound in momentum with prices ticking back up. Monthly changes in home prices are gaining steam as we move into the busier spring season.

While one to two months doesn’t make a trend, the fact that all three reports show prices have stabilized is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data conveys a clear, but early, consensus that a national shift is taking place today. In essence, home prices are starting to tick back up.

Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research at Black Knight, says this about home price trends:

“Just five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180, with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February.”

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains the limited supply of homes available for sale is contributing to this positive turn:

“ . . . prices in many large metros appeared to have turned the corner, with the U.S. recording a second month of consecutive monthly gains. . . . The monthly rebound in home prices underscores the lack of inventory in this housing cycle.”

What This Means for Sellers and Buyers

Here’s What This Means for You

Sellers: If you’ve been holding off on selling because you’re worried about what was happening with home prices and how it would impact the value of your home, it may be time to jump back in and partner with an agent to list your house. You don’t have to put your needs on hold any longer because the latest data shows a turn in your favor.

Buyers: If you’ve been waiting to buy because you didn’t want to purchase something that would decrease in value, you now have the peace of mind things are looking up. Buying now lets you make your move before home prices climb more and gives you the chance to own an asset that typically grows in value over time.

Bottom Line

If you put off your plans to move because you were worried about home prices falling, data shows the worst is already behind us and prices are actually rising nationally. Let’s connect so you have an expert on the local market to explain what we’re seeing with home prices in our area.

BIG NEWS, ACTUALLY MASSIVE NEWS!

May 2023 MARKET WATCH

We’re ecstatic to announce that longtime Aptos native, Jason Flynn, is joining the EF Homes team as Director of Sales / Realtor. His extensive experience in the areas of both real estate sales and real estate management, he’ll be a great addition to the team as we create more services, in more areas, to help more clients.

And as we turn to the Market Watch part of the show, Jason has jumped into the stats between him and Erick, a lot is shared in this edition. Specifically, that 6-month wait for what happens over the hill in Silicon Valley to hit our Santa Cruz County market has now started. Specifically, we’re seeing more competition for the relatively few homes that are on the market. Not as competitive as we saw in early 2022, but there are still far more buyers in the market than homes available to buy. 

With that said, sellers, you’ll want to pay attention as our Ready to Sell program that we’ve talked a lot about lately, is your way to achieve that move in-ready status. Essentially, hand us the keys, we take care of contractors that might do a new roof, new landscaping or even kitchen & bath updates…all the billing is taken care of through escrow, no checks to be written. 

We hope you enjoyed this edition of Market Watch. Have you checked out our library of resources, including our READY TO Sell program allowing 0% financing for 12 months to fix up bathrooms, your roof, landscaping and so much more so you can sell your home at top value. Plus, our Mortgage & Home Value Calculators will help you crunch your numbers.

Don’t forget to sign up for our e-newsletter so you don’t miss out on all our news, trends and market information to keep you in the know too as it’s released each week.

Thank you for letting us be your real estate resource!

-Erick Fernandez

Understanding the Current State of the Housing Market

If you’re thinking about selling your house, you should know the number of homes for sale right now is low. That’s because, this season, there are fewer sellers listing their houses for sale than the norm.

Fewer Sellers Listing Homes: A Trend Worth Noticing

Looking back at every April since 2017, the only year when fewer sellers listed their homes was in April 2020, when the pandemic hit and stalled the housing market (shown in red in the graph below). In more typical years, roughly 500,000 sellers add their homes to the market in April. This year, we saw fewer than 400,000 sellers entering the market in April (see graph below):

While there are a number of factors contributing to this trend, one thing keeping inventory low right now is that some homeowners are reluctant to move when the mortgage rate they have on their current house is lower than the one they could get today on their next house. It’s called rate lock.

Rate Lock and Reluctance to Move: Factors Contributing to Low Inventory

As a recent survey from Realtor.com explains, 56% of people who are planning to sell in the next 12 months say they’re waiting for rates to come down.

While this wait-and-see approach is right for some sellers, it also creates an opening for more eager sellers to jump in now.

Stand Out in a Limited Supply Market: Benefits of Selling Now

If your current house truly doesn’t fit your needs anymore and you’re ready to move, don’t miss this chance to stand out. When fewer sellers are putting their homes up for sale, buyers will have fewer options, so you set yourself up to get the most eyes possible on your house. That’s why your house could see multiple offers as buyers compete over the limited supply of homes for sale – especially if you price it right.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Inventory levels are still at historic lows . . . Consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties."

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to sell now, beat the competition before it comes onto the market. If you do, your house should stand out and could get multiple offers. Let's connect to get you market ready.

Understanding the Relationship Between Inflation and the Housing Market

If you’re reading headlines about inflation or mortgage rates, you may see something about the recent decision from the Federal Reserve (the Fed). But what does it mean for you, the housing market, and your plans to buy a home? Here’s what you need to know.

How the Recent Fed Decision Affects You and Your Homebuying Plans

Inflation and the Housing Market

While the Fed’s working hard to lower inflation, the latest data shows that, while the number has improved some, the inflation rate is still higher than the target (2%). That played a role in the Fed's decision to raise the Federal Funds Rate last week. As Bankrate explains:

“Keeping its inflation-fighting streak alive, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the 10th time in 10 meetings . . . The hikes aimed to cool an economy that was on fire after rebounding from the coronavirus recession of 2020.” 

While the Fed’s actions don’t directly dictate what happens with mortgage rates, their decisions do have an impact and contributed to the intentional cooldown in the housing market last year.

How This Impacts You 

During times of high inflation, your everyday expenses go up. That means you’ve likely felt the pinch at the gas pump and in the grocery store. By raising the Federal Funds Rate, the Fed is actively trying to lower inflation. If the Fed is successful, it could also ultimately lead to lower mortgage rates and better homebuying affordability for you. That’s because when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. But, as inflation cools, experts say mortgage rates will likely fall.

Expert Predictions: Mortgage Rates and Inflation in the Future

Where Experts Think Mortgage Rates and Inflation Will Go from Here

Moving forward, both inflation and mortgage rates will continue to impact the housing market. And as Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Mortgage rates are likely to descend lower later in the year as the consumer price inflation calms down . . .” 

Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), explains: 

“We continue to expect that mortgage rates will drift down over the course of the year as the economy slows . . .”

While there’s no way to say with certainty where mortgage rates will go from here, the experts think mortgage rates will trend down this year if inflation comes down too. To stay informed on the latest insights, connect with a trusted real estate advisor. They keep their pulse on what’s happening today and help you understand what the experts are projecting and how it could impact your homeownership plans.

Stay Informed and Make Informed Decisions About Homeownership

Bottom Line

Don’t let headlines about the latest decision from the Fed confuse you. Where mortgage rates go from here depends on what happens with inflation. If inflation cools, mortgage rates should tick down as a result. Let’s connect so you have expert insights on housing market changes and what they mean for you.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will be releasing its latest Existing Home Sales Report tomorrow. While the report contains valuable information on home prices, it's important to understand that the median sales price reported by NAR isn't always the most accurate measurement of home values.

Are Median Sale Prices Accurate?

The median sales price is a good measure of the typical sale price, but it's not useful for measuring home price appreciation because it's affected by the 'composition' of homes that have sold. For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the "middle" home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.

People buy homes based on their monthly mortgage payment, not the price of the house. When mortgage rates go up, they have to buy a less expensive home to keep the monthly expense affordable. More "less-expensive" houses are selling right now, and that's causing the median price to decline. But that doesn't mean any single house lost value.

Even NAR acknowledges there are limitations to what this type of data can show you. NAR explains: "Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data."

So, what's a better way to measure home price appreciation? Repeat sales indices, which report the same homes' sales prices over time, are a more accurate measure of home value appreciation.

Actual home values are going up in most markets. The median value reported tomorrow might tell a different story. For a more in-depth understanding of home price movements, let's connect.

Bottom Line

When it comes to understanding home prices, be cautious of relying solely on the median sales price. It's just one data point and can be misleading. Instead, look at other measurements, like repeat sales indices, to get a more accurate understanding of home value appreciation.

Even though home prices have moderated over the last year, many homeowners still have an incredible amount of equity. But what is equity? In the simplest terms, equity is the difference between the market value of your home and the amount you owe on your mortgage.

How Equity Grows

Your equity grows over time in two ways:

• Price appreciation: As the value of your home increases, so does your equity.
• Paying down your mortgage: As you make monthly mortgage payments, you gradually reduce the amount you owe, which increases your equity.

How You Can Use Your Equity

There are many ways you can use your equity, including:

• Making a down payment on a new home: If you're planning to buy a new home, you can use your equity to make a down payment. This will reduce your monthly mortgage payments and make it easier to qualify for a loan.
• Paying off debt: You can use your equity to pay off other debts, such as credit card debt or student loans. This will free up money each month that you can use to save or invest.
• Making home improvements: You can use your equity to make home improvements, such as adding a new bathroom or kitchen. This can increase the value of your home and make it more enjoyable to live in.
• Taking out a home equity loan or line of credit: You can use a home equity loan or line of credit to borrow money against the equity in your home. This money can be used for anything you want, such as consolidating debt, paying for college, or starting a business.

How to Get an Estimate of Your Equity

To get an estimate of your equity, you can use a home equity calculator. These calculators are available online and can give you a quick and easy estimate of how much equity you have.

How a Real Estate Agent Can Help

If you're considering using your equity for any reason, it's a good idea to talk to a real estate agent. A real estate agent can help you understand the value of your home, get an estimate of your equity, and make the most of your equity.

Contact Us Today

If you're interested in learning more about how you can use your equity, contact us today. We'll be happy to answer any questions you have and help you make the most of your equity.

THE REAL ESTATE BAR HAS BEEN RAISED!

April 2023 MARKET WATCH

Tech, tech and more tech…we’re speaking about the full immersion of our real estate market into all things tech. Whether it’s the marketing of your property as a seller or on the buyer's side, those from the Bay Area and Silicon Valley are now expecting that homes are modern and turnkey for an easy move so they can get on with their busy lives with minimal updating. 

With that said, sellers, you’ll want to pay attention as our Ready to Sell program that we’ve talked a lot about lately, is your way to achieve that move in-ready status. Essentially, hand us the keys, we take care of contractors that might do a new roof, new landscaping or even kitchen & bath updates…all the billing is taken care of through escrow, no checks to be written. 

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We hope you enjoyed this edition of Market Watch. Have you checked out our library of resources, including our READY TO Sell program allowing 0% financing for 12 months to fix up bathrooms, your roof, landscaping and so much more so you can sell your home at top value. Plus, our Mortgage & Home Value Calculators will help you crunch your numbers.

Don’t forget to sign up for our e-newsletter so you don’t miss out on all our news, trends and market information to keep you in the know too as it’s released each week. Our Vlog Bio or EFHomes.com/blog has all the resources we’ve mentioned waiting for you.

Thank you for letting us be your real estate resource!

-Erick Fernandez

Has the thought of putting your home on the market crossed your mind, but that outdated kitchen or bathroom is holding you back from getting top dollar like your neighbors just did? Well, we have you covered, enter our "Ready To Sell" program that now has both design as well as all the logistics built in, so you can literally just hand us the keys. From hauling trash from a major decluttering to resurfacing the home's floors or maybe even a kitchen refresh. This program is exclusive to EF Homes and Keller Williams. We do all the heavy lifting to make this a super seamless process that maximizes your ROI (Return On Investment), so it’s the items that can double or triple the investment that are our focus.

No need for interviewing contractors or trips to Home Depot, we take care of it all and it’s all based on the equity in your home. The beauty of this is that all enhancements are factored into the closing costs so you never have to pay out of pocket.

You'll be able to transform your property, including:

Exterior/Interior Paint

Roof Repair

Bathroom / Kitchen Enhancements

Repair / Replace Flooring

Cosmetic Renovations

Overhaul Landscaping

We're here to help and can't wait to explain the details, we're extremely excited and look forward to making this a game changer for your home.

We’ve made this an easy, turnkey process so be sure to reach out to find out what your situation might look like so we can get the most for your home.

Thank you for letting us be your Santa Cruz Real Estate resource,

-Erick Fernandez

SELLERS, YOUR TIME IS NOW! 

March 2023 MARKET WATCH

Ok potential sellers, it’s time to take action as the window is currently wide open for you to take advantage of a sellers market that has very few homes for buyers to choose from. A bit hesitant to put that For Sale sign out front? Problem solved, we have just expanded our READY TO SELL program that gets you 100% prepped to sell your home, from hauling clutter to new floors and updating your bathrooms with all the bills paid through your home’s equity at the close of escrow. Get your home sparkling clean and ready, just give us the keys…it’s that easy, seriously!

And buyers, not to fret, there’s still an art to finding homes amongst the competition…but it really does depend on quite a few variables being part of your home buying tool kit. Two of our specialties are creative negotiation and diligence, so if you need to find that home, it’s time for us to chat to get an exact picture, as what you see online isn’t always current…that home on Zillow might already be sold and its value may be off by as much as $500K in some instances.

Overall, this is a crazy market with lines out the door at Open Houses, so it’s time to get prepped no matter which side you’re on.

We hope you enjoyed this edition of Market Watch. Have you checked out our library of resources, including our READY TO SELL program allowing 0% financing for 12 months to fix up bathrooms, your roof, landscaping and so much more whether you’re in the market to buy or sell your home. Plus, our Mortgage & Home Value Calculators will help you crunch your numbers.

Don’t forget to sign up for our e-newsletter so you don’t miss out on all our news, trends and market information to keep you in the know too as it’s released each week. Our Vlog Bio or EFHomes.com/blog has all the resources we’ve mentioned waiting for you.

Thank you for letting us be your real estate resource!

-Erick Fernandez